The poverty rate, inflation and the rise in the dollar hit so hard in the intention to vote for Mauricio Macri reserved their studies no longer exclude the possibility of release of STEP and the third in the first round of presidential elections. Macro rejected the possibility balottage justicialistas between unions, but formal studies have warned of a possible second round of opposition by the economic crisis and social resistance restructuring plan.
Macro is a third of the voters and increases its negative image. Cristina Kirchner maintains its thirty percent of the votes themselves and their electoral ceiling is starting to grow despite 11 court and 5-trial orders. Roberto Laban amesetó in recent days, while Sergio Massa and Juan Manuel Ertubi not grow shut down as candidates for the Federal Peronism.
Faced with this pre-election photo, polls begin to show subtle social movements, which have the ability to change status quo Let's change between the proposal and the alternatives led by Christine and two former Ministers of the Kirchner administration.
These social movements punish the chances of re-election Macro and improve the campaign CPK mass and Lavagna. Macro lose votes as a result of the economic crisis, Cristina improves their positive image from a pragmatic silence and Laban -mainly-I is observed as the excluded middle in the election dispute is now dirimen president and former president.
Christine Laban and have a temporary advantage over Macro: results of the economic plan. It is still impossible to predict when inflation will decline, remain stable exchange rate and start to reduce poverty. Then, until this happens, the president will lose votes, swell into the category of uncertain or will slide offers Peronists.
Close-up of public works management commitment, lack of structural corruption in his government and the international agenda, made during the last three years. This rate is consolidating its own voice and retains a share of disappointed voters, but do not serve to win the presidential election.
Measurements are circulating on the first floor of the Casa Rosada disclosed without euphemisms electoral pócima: Only the improvement of the economic situation will restore some confidence in the societyBefore the majority of votes Let's change that feeling summed unfulfilled promises. These voters, who already account for uncertain election category, will vote when the former Minister of Laban Néstor Kirchner decides to play his last political card.
The economic situation is complicated by the macro- and excites CFK, Laban and WeightChristina is still playing and their electoral prospects will no longer depend on their morality and personal ethics, because it grows as a candidate, although justice again and again proves that committed acts of public corruption. Laban and weight, however, pass through the media to settle the presidential candidate before STEP.
On the Ides of March unequal, there are three thirds: Let's change, KFK and the Federal Alternative. But the adjustment plan harms President images. And if the leak is not terminated, Macro can get complicated to PASO angle in the first round, regardless of the possible candidates Christine and Laban. The President has no plan B, and ruled out for now you can Plan V (IDAL)
Attached to the complex economic equation, Christina, Massa and Laban leverage additional political advantages: do not lead a government that has a special way of relationship management Supreme court, Maneuvered in the reservoirs intelligence and limit own operations its allies Let's change the fans.
The sum of these factors affects the image of the presidential and help improve the electoral expectations of the opposition, lever in the case of D & # 39; Alessio, dogmatic positions of Carlos Rosenkrantz and opinions Carrió, Macro and punish his way of exercising power.
Gustavo Arribas and Silvia Majdalani, Director of the Federal Intelligence agency (AFI), always running for the cause of D & # 39; Alessio. Arribas lack of technical knowledge, and know too Majdalani.
Macro has all the information on the case and does not commit any institution played in the AFIThis ratio may be the company president's fault: there is enough evidence to support the legal relationship between the body and D & # 39; Alessio cesspool AFI simultaneous delivery of the decision of legislators and the opposition. CK, Mass and Laban be grateful for the president's passivity.
The crisis of the security services to monitor who else María Eugenia Vidal, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and Carrio not legally order, coven adds to the Supreme Court. Macro does not have any official who can know what is happening on the fourth floor of the Palace of the courts. As in the case of D & # 39; Alessio, solutions, Ricardo Lorenzetti, Horacio Rosatti Juan Carlos Maqueda and real power-Court-They surprised the government and its parliamentary and judicial branches.
A simple example: Macro decided to initiate impeachment Alejo Ramos Padilla, the magistrate overseeing the case D & # 39; Alessio that buzzed in the API and sophisticated institutional stability Carlos Stornelli federal prosecutor.
Presidential initiative is unlikely to promote the judicial council and the government's inability to undress again to understand the complex network that is woven into the political and judicial system.
At the same time, Lorenzetti, Macheda and Rosatti, which, if they know how to federal jurisdiction and anexos- work, additional funds approved by the scene to help, since research Ramos Padilla made in the case of D & # 39; Alessio. Macro political mistake, which was the title of media operators CPK mass and Laban, who are in constant company.
But support for Ramos Padilla not only demonstrates the institutional movement Court. It is also a political response to the offensive constants curry, without the consent of Macro transformed Lorenzetti, Macheda and Rosatti at moving targets. Change the deputy judge accused the "coup" and considered to be a natural leader ethical crusade to liberate the wicked Supreme Court.
"Lilith is one. Macro is nothing that says the Court and the AFI is not supported. So as we said Lorenzetti and Arribas, »the official said, breathing in the shadow of the president.
Arribas, which is a & # 39; is a member of Macro, I agree with the opinion of the official cabinet key. Lorenzetti, who read more than once Machiavelli and Hobbes, does not believe that Carrió have much Balcarce 50 independence.
Macro narrow his trip abroad (he will go to France, Belgium and Japan over the next three months) and focus on the election campaignPresident is not afraid to direct questions, and will continue its strategy to visit public places and private homes to explain their management and insisted his presidential re-election.
Macro planning to make a trip across the country, even the provinces that patrimony Peronism -Formosa, San Luis, Cordoba and Santa Cruz, and put a lot of attention to the province of Buenos Aires.
Saw will stand with the president, but political relations have to shell a bit. Buenos Aires Governor suffered budget cuts, he lost to Marcos Peña in its proposal to split the presidential elections and caught fire when he learned that he was investigated by the intelligence services. Arribas swore eternal innocence, but Vidal much more Heidi ago.
Governor faithful Macro and trusts his presidential re-election as governor many -Other allies, ministers, state secretaries, deputies and senators are beginning to talk about his political and personal future. The same motif with a & # 39 Rodriguez Larreta: Macro faithful, cold Pena and pray that months pass quickly to cap his second term in Buenos Aires city.
Macro waiting Convention UCR discern how radical are the ranks of Laban. Then browse polls Jaime Duran Barbie appoint his partner Patricia Bullrich in the top of the options, and finally advance in Argentina to fight for re-election. Christina prefers not exclude Laban. In the ring, there is only room for two.