Friday , June 25 2021

He came up in 2019, it will be difficult for the dollar

But over in a few weeks or months will continue, it should be clear that the current time & # 39; unification of the financial market can not last forever. In other words, easy dollar Country risk above and 300/350 maximal level dots that can be placed in International- debt markets disparate facts. Thus, it seems that the time may continue to fall, as well as, the dollar will be a discrete variable behavior while it is impossible not to put the new debt, and simply restore the maturing debt is not only incompatible factors, but rather something more extreme: antagonistic to each other. Country risk yesterday closed at 724 points. So there is a sea of ​​difference between the current level and the level at which it can be reduced debt by more than six months. This factor, which does not show any significant signs of improvement, but on the contrary, sooner rather than later will destabilize the currency market. You can not continue to think that the month is as of November headlines away from the financial variables with country risk at the same level.

What might happen next? It will continue without changing the current dynamics of these two variables: the dollar and the country risk? Chances are that, how to pass the first months of 2019, and dollars Monetary Fund will be used to pay, country risk, not only have high levels of resistance approaches consistent with access to the credit markets, but their own high level will produce instability in the foreign exchange market . A dollar instability is transferred quickly from one side to the impracticability of reducing interest rates very much more than the central bank withdrew their "sex", and on the other hand, are not able to reduce greatly the rate of inflation. Well, maybe just lucky that I could stay for months at a rate of inflation of 2% to 3% per month, which is currently displayed in the month of December. That is to say that we are now entering a period of rest, which would be only indirect and short-lived.

And it has a lot of reasonable, given that the government will be eliminated when tax revenues are not playing bad pasada- operational deficits of the treasury in 2019, but continues to suffer from a convex BCRA quasi-fiscal deficit, which joined the Treasury increases in the fiscal deficit, and not downward, come together to 7.5% of GDP. Sized deficit without the voluntary market financing is very unlikely to converge to rates very low percentage and calm and stable dollar. Even less when you consider that the 2019 elections will sell dollars discount Chritine body, which leads Lagarde to be used.

Outside, most likely, too, do not give respite to the Argentine economy. It seems that even we understand that international markets experienced a "bull market" longer and longer history: almost ten years of ups and Wall Street and rising interest rates close to zero. This scenario begins to fade in the 2018, when yields began to rise and stocks on Wall Street ceased to grow and show clear signs that reached the ceiling. It is possible that the country risk rate, not only in Argentina but also in many other countries to register in their share price, this factor is far from being discounted in the best shape. It is likely that during 2019 there are some countries that do not have access to international credit markets. And since Argentina with & # 39 is a risky all in accordance with their current prices, then we go to 2019, which will have moments of great uncertainty and high risk. But all this seems to have not been properly internalized authorities issue more and more money tend to put a floor, ceiling, adequacy rules, goals and objectives, which may well happen suddenly to file all together as one of the factors we discussed the press on dollar market. It seems as if he believed that the process of low interest rates has come to stay and the ability to keep the dollar in check is already something "bought" as Taming of the Shrew, and not a lion in the least expected moments roar and the tamer snacks.

This proliferation of measures that make it increasingly difficult money market is designed for a different time and in different circumstances. You could even say that to the other country. Even despite the fact that in 2020 Argentina must actively go to the markets to buy dollars in the financial market to pay and do not fall into default in an increasingly complex world. On the contrary, monetary standards worthy of a neurotic obsessive-compulsive quasi how to create a rule, following the rules set by the market gives you a few weeks in advance.

Meanwhile, we are in the month of December, which is usually the most illiquid of the year, the month, the most in need of cash in circulation and current accounts in pesos bulging companies. You may not notice, but returned to the bear, because now larvada way back to the sources of instability. If it becomes visible in all its power it will be clear that Argentina can not afford to have a consolidated budget deficit of 7.5% of GDP in the world, which is not only more funds, but also cease to be a source of widespread financial bonanza.

[email protected]

Source link