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He went up a dollar … and now? Signals which allow to analyze what can happen with a course



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Source: Archive

Factors. There's no single reason for the price movements of the US dollar; external context, monetary policy and the expectation of demand and supply

Instead, there was a hard week, we spent quite a difficult month. It was a new jump in the dollar, which is returned (once again) to draw the attention of investors. Type of retail changes noted the new record, reaching $ 44.92, with an increase in a little over 3% last week, bringing the accumulated in the month increased by 10% growth. This, in the context of increased volatility of the average level of below 10% in February to more than 30% over the past two weeks.

If evolution is considered in respect of non-intervention group, the exchange rate of reference (wholesale dollar, BCRA3500) is about 11% from the floor, compared with the average gap between February and mid-March did not exceed 2%. The jump took the ticket is much closer than the half of the band, the area had so far experienced.

Discussion of reasons does not seem fair. It was a combination of several factors (own and other) that are pressed on the exchange. The international scene was one of them, in the context of growing uncertainty about the growth -incertidumbre are concentrated in the United States, which has had an impact on the overall market (also have their weaknesses). To analyze which problems & # 39 are internal and which are not, it is used to analyze the behavior of CDS, as a measure of risk.

Brazil jumped, for example, slightly more than 20 points in the last 15 days; Argentina that same period, about 66 points in the same period. In other words, it is obvious that not all the wines out of context. How can we show ourselves strictly to the principle of two variables: the monetary policy or in connection with, and the second is related to the race.

The first of these variables lead us to the month of February, in which there were errors (forced or otherwise) who have left the system with high liquidity. The sharp decline in interest rates in the context of high inflation quickly eroded the real speed of attractive racing dollarization of portfolios. This difference is corrected with some tendency to growth rates in recent weeks, -The speed Leliq roses, given the minimum of February, more than 23 percentage points. But the "problem" when the "guilty" are searched, with the & # 39 is that Badlar (which affects the average investor pocket) got only about 9 percentage points, with the result that the spread between the rate Leliqs and Badlar by more than 24 percentage points. The difference was in the middle of February, 8.5 points.

40% higher than the deposit rates that prevailed in March were not real positive rates, in the hope that inflation will range from 3.5% to 4% in March this year. Given the projection, in the annual data easily exceed 45%. In addition, it is assumed that the price change will be high -Here April last month with high rates upwards, which are also added to the attractiveness. What needs to happen in order to reduce the spread? In principle, the excess liquidity corrected.

Said second variable (electoral issue), does not make us go back in time, but ahead. This factor indicates the political uncertainty that may expected in May or June. Begin with & # 39; to appear different polls and their results are far from reaching the stage is clear. This is something that will co-exist.

If you are looking for good support signals that allow the projection of falling volatility in the coming weeks, the exchange rate (and pressure on it) will focus on both sides of the equation: supply and demand.

On the supply side, in April, they need to get public and private dollars. This is the context in which the Treasury has received approval from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to sell daily balance of $ 60 million by the middle of next month (for a total of 9.6 billion per year) which is expected also that the corresponding amounts will increase in the export of liquidated he understood, however, that manufacturers will play with the expectation of a devaluation. Thus, it is expected that the minimum amount agreed to cover the costs in pesos, to cancel the credits taken during a drought and transplant. He speaks about the offer close to 9.5 billion dollars by August, the amount of the fine in the market, will your weight.

On the demand side, meanwhile, the likelihood that the spread between the rates and Leliq Badlar -presionando reduces up interest rates offered by banks, and inflation begins to wane, they might lead to increased appetite for the real rate and therefore lower appetite for dollarization.

In the end, short-term expectations can be projected some relief. Peo should never cease to note that there are some variables that go beyond the basics of analysis.

And the rates in dollars, a game with a few games

68%

This is the level at which ended the week Leliq speed. For deposits of long-term fixed income depositors about 43% / 44% per annum

devaluation

growth of the dollar in March exceeded 10 percent. The maximum value contained very cercade 45 pesos

on sale

One of the elements for the assessment by the supply of dollars that the treasury has received marketing authorization from April, about $ 60 per day millonesde

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