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San – Juan and national election scenario



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The dynamics of this election year for a long time every day generates new configurations that affect the greater or lesser degree on the stage of the national company, and which require the political strategies of the various contending forces the ability to calibrate the armed advantage of its benefits changes that provoked the electoral landscape.

The new competition is being held in San Juan province, where Governor Sergio UNAC seek to kill a resounding victory in the provincial PASO bringing it to its goal of being re-elected and therefore to reconsider its role in the national Peronism is still looking to define their identity. Cuyano balance between the governor sent a former president and heterogeneous space Federal Peronism, probably one of the highlights of the provincial electoral assembly.

From Buenos Aires, the main political space to observe not only with interest the results of sanjuaninas elections, but also the subsequent political definition, of course, defeats the UNAC show them already difficult national election scenario with each new date nourished schedule provincial elections add new elements to be considered in the strategy company.
In the race are determined by their stage?

In the development of any political strategy element that requires rigorous and comprehensive analysis of this scenario, in which the race will develop. This concept includes the articulation of political, economic and social factors, as well as all kinds that affect the electoral process and that, far from being static, constantly changing.

As has been surprised in our country is still in the context of -Less electorales- this week the scenario of the company seems to have been significantly altered. It depends on each of the political space and the experience of its teams to the size of how much and how it affects their strategy and make the necessary adjustments to minimize the impact of these events or potenciarlar as necessary for each company.

The truth is that there are at least three new stage to note: economic, social and justice.

Dollar swings that gave rise to concern in the ruling party for most of 2018 and significantly affected the image management Macro, again disturbing dreams and prospects Argentines. Steep climb as recorded in the first days of last week, the currency Where increased from 42 to almost 45 pesos, unfortunately, known prelude to an increase in areas such as food, utilities, fuel, etc. About & # 39 announcement that inflation is already down, the president made at the opening sessions of the Congress is faced with a reality that is not abating.

In this sense, the communicative argument that "only those who buy dollars broken down with the growth of currency" with the & # 39 is invalid. The dollar's rise goes far beyond the sentiment in the market and creates discomfort in the broad upper and middle classes, even those that do not buy dollars, in the electoral scenario has caused negative with & # 39; is a serious & # 39; oznay issue for the ruling party.

The second element of the scenario, who met this week, and took most of the day the media was an increase in poverty and extreme poverty in the country. These were separated from the new report, published by the IISEPS, noting that poverty in Argentina has reached 32% and the poverty rate by 6.7%, which means that 12.9 million Argentines with 39 & # 2 are poor and 7,000,000 homeless.

While these numbers are high, the greater the increase in both indicators was only one year. Thus, poverty increased from 25.7% to 32%, which is 39 & # 2650000 new poor – poor increased from 4.8% to 6.7%, which is 39 & # 800000 new poor. This statement is the agency responsible for national statistics in the context of the election year, it is the assertion that the president himself said in 2016: "I want to evaluate, when I got down poverty."

The third element was again the protagonist of the public agenda this week was justice. Much attention is given different cases are heard in the federal courts, and not just those that involve Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, but also to achieve some targets have changed, it seems, expects the company will also have a privileged arena in Comodoro Py, The question that remains in this case, or with the & # 39 is "corruption" with the & # 39 is one of the thematic references that could mobilize public opinion in the course of the campaign and, if necessary, to guide the direction of the vote.

In this regard, on election day this Sunday before the fourth element that should be considered -post factum- list of the script: the primary elections for governor in San Juan.

San – Juan: the result from the impact on the national stage

Electoral spirit is flying over the province of San Juan. Voters go to the polls to choose -in Elementary Open, simultaneous and mandatory (STEP) – competing candidate for governor. The current governor, Sergio UNAC, predicts victory of Peronism and with that his re-election.

Their confidence, in addition to relying on the eternal moments-and dangerously self-esteem, that all policies are currently based on a logical backup: the victory of his brother, Ruben UNAC, to compete in parliamentary elections in 2017, he won the show because of its space at the provincial level, reaching 54.5% of the vote and beat us to change -And then candidate, Roberto Basualdo- for 22 points. Triumph that should be remembered, took place in the context of the national elections, which is changing far from suffered some wear and tear expected, increased its voter support compared to 2015.

Demographically, the San Juan with a & # 39 is part of a set of areas that do not reach 2% of the national standard. With 555.766 voters, voters on the value of 1.68% of the country, which, for many analysts, it remains at the center of this election.

However, the peculiarity of these elections, which strategies and national space observando- position should be taken UNAC after the election results.

On the side of waiting kirchnerismo if UNAC gesture Win-will revolve around the San Juan may or may not have about Roberto Laban. It is worth mentioning that part of the maelstrom surrounding public exhibition of the former Minister of Nestor Kirchner, began with a visit to UNAC made his home at the end of last year and, after his own Laban in the province of San Juan. Para some have tacit support UNAC to Laban. But in politics all the unspoken to concrete; mystery, suspicion and prohibitions with & # 39 are part of the political game. That Kirchner is clearly afraid of the governor support with good image as a UNAC -after defeating their provincial rival Christina again.

At the same time, let's change the bet that this "balance" the governor was able to spend between Christina and the Federal Peronism balance. Dismissed claim victory in the San Juan province of Afin candidate from the rate Casa Rosada with & # 39 is that the UNAC scale from the hand of a new triumph of Peronism into position to try to stand candidates in Lavagna concert and subtract the support of the former president. Strategists change hypothesis Let that if the macro is competing with Christina, but Laban takes points in the Peronism, the president would have paved the victory at the elections in October.

Some analysts believe that the choice of San Juan could have a greater impact in the national competition, which is a & # 39 is light. Maybe, if the result goes from simple to win a landslide victory and sanjuanino managed to increase its national influence, with it & # 39 it is legitimate to suspect that we are faced with the possibility that an election year to see him compete in the "other leagues."

Currently, the country's electoral thermometer measured in these days of this local race waiting for their results.

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