Soybeans closed lower again today on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and thus continue the negative trend has depressed oil prices to their lowest level since the end of October last year.
At the end of the operation, they portrayed slates US $ 2,30 to take off during the May and July contracts for soybeans, whose adjustments as a result of 311.40 and $ 316.27 per tonne. The lowest background in these figures is $ 308.29, from last October 31.
Bassist real American soybeans entirely cyclical and structural nature, as its basic level of fund shares, is expected to close in the 2018/2019 cycle of the nearest record 24 million tonnes compared to 11.92 million in the previous season. This grain balance will be the direct result of a trade war between the US and China, which began in March 2018, and that no one should put an expiration date.
While bilateral trade dispute has several facets, in a strictly agricultural, Chinese retaliation against US soybeans from 6 -The last- introduction of the tariff by 25% in June on goods from the United States, it was a measure of the impact of high-restricting exports; She is confused by the prices in Chicago and arrived manufacturer, and provides unprecedented resistance bearish stocks extend their influence over the company's 2019/2020.
With this reality, as the foundation of a rich harvest of soybeans in South America, with a forecast of 116 million tons in Brazil; 56 million in Argentina, and 15 million from Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay, putting downward pressure on prices in Chicago. Regional bloc leads the global supply of soybeans and has already demonstrated its ability to take most of the space, the rest of the United States in China.
Another factor that puts pressure on soybean prices to & # 39 is unleashing more out of African swine fever control pigs in China, which reduces the number of animals in fattening, with a subsequent drop in flour demand, and this raises an important question about a & # 39 the volume of Chinese imports of soybeans.
Finally, the relative US corn planting delay wet weather & # 39; I 2019/2020 limiting fieldwork threatens add of soy and consolidated bases bear.
As for soybean planting, after the market closes on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA, for its abbreviation in English) released today its advance more than 3% of the planned area, compared to 1% last week; 5% from the same period in 2018, and 6 in the average of the last four seasons%. The official figure was lower than the 4% expected by operators.
Although the market a new range may be partial compensation fund shares restructuring speculators investments that retain a significant short position in the soybean market (also in maize and wheat), A real improvement in prices may occur, if the United States and China signed an agreement to provide a fluid program Chinese purchases and the elimination of the tariff, business constraint to make state-owned enterprises Cofco and Sinograin. In addition, wet weather & # 39; e should last long enough to complicate the current planting oilseed plan. However, both bases just luck today.
Weak growth of corn
After work, with more than US $ 1.5 per ton load, corn prices in Chicago have just managed to close with an increase of $ 0.30, and 0.19 in May to July contracts whose settings were 58 138 and $ 142.41 per ton. The only support upgrade was wet weather & # 39; ie, limiting the promotion landing in the United States Midwest in recent days.
However, after the close of trading in U.S. USDA released ahead of a square corn planting on 15% of the projected area, above 14% on average calculated operators. The official figure exceeded 6%, equaling the current level of one year ago last week, but remains below the average of the past four seasons% 27. In its weekly report, the agency added that & # 39 were 3% of the plants, compared with 3% at the same time in 2018 and by an average of 5%.
Soybeans, US corn have to deal with a very rich about & # 39 volumes of stocks; With increasing competition, Brazil / Argentina unit, projecting an increase of almost 30% of exports in the 2018/2019 cycle and increase the representation of USDA-from 36.06 to 37,550,000 hectares – landing in the United States, if time permits.
Wheat prices have now closed with heavy losses in the US market, due to the very good condition of winter crops in the Great Plains of the United States, Russia and the European Union.
In this context, increasing the supply of safe with the end of the next month in the Northern Hemisphere & # 39; and the business cycle and 2019/2020 with strong competition in the export market, Chicago reflection slates US $ 3.04 and remove 2.66 for May and July wheat position whose settings were 156.80 and $ 159.93 per tonne.
Even more significant were the losses in the presence of Kansas, where the US contracts in May and July wheat $ 3.67 submissive and 3.86, after the adjustment wheel 143.21 and $ 145.87 per tonne.
And the worst omens for prices after the market closes met. In its weekly report on USDA crop he has grown from 62 to 64% share of winter wheat in good / excellent condition and are located far from the current 33% a year ago. The new figure exceeded the average 62% of private evaluation.
Without the weight of the above news agency showed retardation of spring wheat planting in the United States to confirm their progress to 13% of the planned area, compared to 33 on average for the last four seasons%.
In the domestic market, the demand for soybeans in most Rosario today offered $ 215 per ton is available. While the value does not mean a nominal change from a rebound last Friday in the peso against the dollar (the ratio went from 45 770 to 44 125, according to the purchase rate of the quote currency, the National Bank) assumes fall equivalence those dollars, from 9840 to 9490 pesos ton.
For business deliveries in November were detained stakeholders who offered $ 230 per ton of soybeans.
Term market in Buenos Aires (Matba) soybeans in May and July, the United States position lost $ 2, and 2.10, whereas their adjustments were 215.30 and $ 222 per ton.
About the export of maize offered 5,800 pesos per ton of grain for immediate delivery in Gran Rosario, $ 100 less than last Friday. Other interested bids $ 130 for download in the short term and $ 127 in July.
In the southern port of Buenos Aires, the demand offered $ 136 for Bahia Blanca, US $ 2 less than on Friday, and US $ 130 for Necochea, unchanged.
Grain Exchange Buenos Aires (BCBA) reported that consumption between 4700 and 5400 pesos paid per ton of corn, according to the condition, quality, origin and method of payment.
Matba fell US $ 0.20 in July corn positions and closed with an adjustment of $ 125 per ton, while the contract rose $ 0.50 US in September, after the value of $ 130,50.
Finally, wheat woke up in Rosario lost $ 10 on Friday, and the export offered $ 185 per ton of grain available. Bahia Blanca and Nekoche any changes and grains are not traded on 180 and $ 170, respectively.
In the reflection of external weakness in the price of wheat, grain harvest 2019/2020 Argentina for deliveries in December and January for $ 150, with $ 5 off.
Matba slates reflected rises 1.30 and US $ 1.70 in July and January of wheat contracts whose settings were 184.30 and $ 161.20 per tonne.
BCBA reported that factories paid between 7,100 and 9,300 pesos per tonne of wheat, according to the quality, origin and method of payment.