"Although the agreement with the IMF, increasing the availability of foreign currency of the National Public Sector, he limited his action in the currency market. Thus, even with guaranteed liquidity, this year may be destroyed by the ratio of GDP of debt "He said.
It should be noted that while the currency remains in the non-interference zone, the monetary authorities can not intervene directly in the currency market, but through interest rate hikes and the operations on the futures market.
Consulting said in its report that, although the National Treasury to tender or $ s 60 million agreement with the IMF on a daily basis between the second half of April and the end of November in order to meet their budget needs, "Auctions will be enough for most days of stress."
He also said that if the exchange rate reached the ceiling in the area of non-interference (ZnI), taking into account the inflationary acceleration and deepening of the recession, will entail, "The debt to GDP ratio will rise by more than 10 percentage points against the backdrop of a calm exchange (about half ZnI) ».
In this regard, I want to note that "given the significant turmoil that will bring 2019 it can be said that the agreement with the IMF, improve the liquidity of the Treasury, but the restrictions imposed on the foreign exchange market intervention could exacerbate the debt ratio of the GDP."
In addition, he noted that the purpose of the primary fiscal balance is drastically reduced need operational funding of the public sector, so that the size of the debt should not grow significantly, and only on the refinancing interest payments (about 4 percentage points of GDP). He added that as a result of the payment of approximately $ s 57 billion within two years from the IMF, the National Treasury liquidity is covered.
General liabilities of the public sector increased from U $ S 321 000 million end of 2017 to U $ S 332 000 million in 2018, according to Ecolatina. "Thus, he notes that the total liabilities increased slightly more than $ 10,000 seconds million last year, which means an annual increase of only 3%," he said.
However, he added that the debt to GDP ratio has increased considerably: it jumped by almost 30 percentage points (pp) of the product in the past year, more than 75% of the total & # 39; the volume of liabilities in foreign currency.
He also said that the stock of the receivables increased from U $ S 165.000 million in 2017 to more than $ U 200,000 million from 2018, marking an annual increase of 25%. Moreover, the state corresponding to the duty ratio of the GDP 24 is judged PP, closing about 53% in 2018 year.
"This dynamic is explained by the fact that the first payment of the IMF have been used in part to repay the debt with ANSES and the Central Bank," he said.