Over the next 20 years, what will be the most transformative technology of a sudden?
This is a question that was asked me more than once in recent years, and my answer is illogical car – and I do not mean self-control vehicles. Innovation often comes most strongly in the main, the most commonly used services, where the offer price is already set. Thus, the car has a distinct advantage over a colony of Mars, say, or hyperloop.
Experience the car has improved significantly in recent years, mainly due to the exchange trip, allowing a new trip or help people get a job, or talk on the phone when they otherwise would have been behind the wheel.
Ride-sharing was the biggest technological impetus for my standard of living, as the smartphone, and the service benefits both drivers and non-drivers. It is not surprising that the two most publicized offerings this year with the & # 39 are Uber and Lyft with Uber, with $ 90 billion of potential value.
And many of them have not even begun to use to drive the exchange, so there is plenty of space for growing the market.
As a general principle, the basic starting innovations result in the following further innovation. For example, a trip to the exchange already substituting for some forms of public transport. Ride-sharing to help save transportation services are available where there is no bus or rail lines, including for older people who are no longer always feel comfortable behind the wheel.
Room for improvement
Another reality of the modern car with & # 39 is that Tesla has managed to re-think the whole design. The instrument panel and inter & # 39; er reconfigured, electric drive, software & # 39 is much more visible and integrated into the design, voice recognition works a variety of systems, and is the very management features too. Whether or not you think the Tesla as a company to be successful, its design work has shown how much there is room for improvement.
You can argue that cars have numerous negative features – but where there is considerable potential for large-scale transformations. Cars cause a lot of air pollution, but the electric (or possibly even hydrogen cars) are on their way, and they will reduce noise as well as hybrids are already doing.
Cars also create traffic congestion, traffic jams but pricing can significantly alleviate this problem, because it is already in Singapore. As for the construction of new roads, transport analyst at Robert W. Poole Jr. argues in his new book that there is plenty of room for fee concession of the private sector model, to grow, leading to more expensive and easily switched.
In other words, two big problems with the car – pollution and traffic congestion – have gone from "can not be solved" on the border control.
There is also a security issue, as the car crashes with & # 39 is one of the leading causes of death. But software can help with automatic braking, threat detection, and monitoring whether the drivers n & # 39; yanyya or stoned. Crash impact systems can be safer still. In the case of the death of a pedestrian may have smartphones can be improved to detect and warn of impending threats to the vehicle or improvements can come to the side of the vehicle.
And if complete self-control vehicles operate on a large scale, with Wi-Fi and a nap in the back seat, the car will get even better. At the same time, the proliferation of podcasts make management much more fun.
Now vehicles are widely owned, despite the rather hefty price tag and requires many hours of time. Basic infrastructure and legal framework already in place. Thus, despite the current obsessions with robots and editing of genes, it should be apparent that the most sensitive changes in the technology over the next 20 years is likely to come in the relatively secular areas of life – namely, life on the road.