National Hockey League deserves enormous credit for the creation of a culture in which most of the teams (including the front offices, coaching staffs and even their respective fan bases) believe that they are in the playoff race for most of the season. The reality is very different.
One of the exciting parts of the regular NHL season as tight with the & # 39 is in the standings on the surface. Elite and the formidable team become apparent very early, but the middle of the pack always seem muddied mess. Consider the conference race right now. In the East, you have nine teams, divided into four wins or less. In the West, you have eight teams, divided into four wins or less. Add to that playoff race division on the basis of a final restructuring -finish in the top three of its divisions, regardless of the recording, and you – and you will further complicate the situation.
But the reality is quite different. By now, you've probably heard about some of the check points, or markers that refer to the team to legitimize (or delegitimization) their credibility decisive meeting. Some people prefer to look at the position of a team when the American Thanksgiving rolls around. Others prefer not to wait until Christmas. In many cases, we do not have that many games to understand the fate of the team, as it relates to the postseason.
Even under the funk-based separation playoff system, we have a very strong handle on the fate of the team around the mark of 20 games, and possibly earlier. We do not need to run complex simulations to understand the exact probabilities in different environments. We can simply use the descriptive data from the 2013-14 season, to show how likely (or unlikely), then for the team to reach the postseason, depending on their performance across any number of games.
Below is a table that indicates the playoffs probability points tempo and games. As you can see, the probability is very obvious, but pay special attention to the tails here. Ugly start is not easy to overcome. White-hot start, as a rule, very encouraging, as it relates to the rate of the playoffs. The reason is twofold: the point in the bank with the & # 39 are very valuable, and even a simple measure of how winning entry / loss is quite telling about the team's talent and ability to maintain the victory over the rest of the regular season.
Here are the details, such as:
I stratified into three buckets – teams from 0 to 25 per cent chance to make the playoffs in any interval, the team from 25 to 75 percent chance to make the playoffs in each interval, and the team from 75 to 100 percent chance to make the playoffs. What is interesting for me to & # 39 is that, on the basis of just a few years of historical data, trends and patterns are very predictable.
But consider this in the context of the NHL standings, as they sit with games on Saturday in the books. Effectively, each team is within the window of 30 to 35 games, so we should have a very strong feeling that the team is likely, with that team, most likely in and which teams on the bubble.
Using our items range and probability based on historical data, we can already name the six teams (Ottawa via Los Angeles), it is very unlikely to make the playoffs. Four more teams (from Vancouver to Arizona), may join them over the next five or so games as they are already sitting at the very low end of the bubble. At the other end of the spectrum, at least seven teams (with Tampa Bay at Buffalo), it seems like the locks to get to the playoffs, and Colorado can join them for a few days.
The bottom line is: do not be disoriented mixed competition. If you include Colorado, half of our playoff race, it seems reasonably decided. This means that 13 teams compete for the final eight places. It's still an incredible race and it will be impossible to predict how this segment will evolve over time, but to distinguish who is really in the playoff race with a & # 39 is important – especially if you are the CEO at the bottom of the table and the belief that your team may be alive.
You'll often hear or read things like "team only a couple of plays with a playoff spot," which, of course, assumes that the team says in the playoff race. Teams can even make aggressive, buy now the decision to pursue these two victories. But the reality is that the team is not only two victories out of a playoff spot. There are 30 other teams in the NHL, playing with each other every day at least two points guaranteed to stand out every time the final whistle sounds.
So it feels like a light strike on the deficit is actually quite difficult, because the teams that come will continue to capture a point in the standings at the bottom of the chart.