Supply and demand to pick up both the end of March, the manufacturing PMI index for a return to expansionary territory
China Securities Journal
□ reporter Zhao Nan White enforcement
National Bureau of Survey Center Service Sector Statistics, China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing jointly issued March 31 data, the index of manufacturing purchasing managers in China in March (PMI) was 50.5 percent, up 1.3 percentage points for three consecutive months after as less than 50% of the critical point back expansive territory. Experts believe that the PMI data show that both ends of the supply and demand should pick up, the economy is gradually improving in the second quarter is expected steady growth. Under the background of steady growth of gradual landing policy, small and medium-sized enterprises, it is expected to be improved.
Production index rebounded significantly
National Bureau of Statistics Service Sector Survey Center Senior Statistics Zhao Qing River, said the March PMI data showed the following characteristics: First, speed up industrial activity, domestic demand continued to improve. For a country to maintain a policy of the board of the real sector of the economy falling gradually reduce aerodynamic landing administration of taxes, both ends of the supply and demand has been warmer. Second, new momentum and rapid growth, stable consumer goods industry. Third, the price index rose, corporate purchases will increase. Fourth, global economic growth has slowed, import and export of electricity is still not enough.
General Manager Director of CICC fixed-income analyst Chen Jianheng said that in previous years 2 – PMI with & # 39 appears in the March seasonal rebound in March of this year compared with previous years, mainly manufacturing index rebounded more obvious. Attached to the Chinese New Year effect, production and raw material inventories increased VAT tax cuts "false start effect." It is clear after the reduction in the VAT tax, companies stepped up purchases mined high-tax products with a significant tax credit, raw materials, demand for replenishment, resulting in up business flow to activate the production of lead in the steel industry is more obvious. To increase the input tax deduction, a large number of steel traders to collect the goods, the PMI rapid increase in stocks of raw materials, resulting in raw materials – stocks of finished goods also continued to rise.
"The economy is gradually improving in the second quarter is expected steady growth."Bank of ChinaInternational Institute of Finance researcher Lee Hyuk believe that the ends of both supply and demand to pick up, the PMI manufacturing, is expected to continue to grow. With the external environment improves, policy that underlies the roles & # 39; is, profits of industrial enterprises will be bottomed, market expectations are gradually getting better and better. In addition, new formats, new facilities accelerate the formation Chanyejiegou continue to optimize production, the PMI manufacturing of high-tech production equipment for the production and consumer goods were considerably higher than in the manufacturing sector as a whole. The expected economic recovery is expected to stabilize in the second quarter of this year shows the "high to low" trend.
Small and medium business is expected to improve
From the enterprise scale, large enterprises PMI was 51.1 percent, down 0.4 percentage points last month, above the critical point, the SME PMI was 49.9% and 49.3%, respectively, last month increased by 3.0 and 4.0 percentage points.
inCITIC Securitiesthe chief economist Zhu Jian Fang, a policy of "sustainable growth" is starting to show results, is expected to improve considerably for small and medium-sized businesses, production and new orders increased significantly, especially small and medium-sized enterprises account for a large manufacturing industry have much to gain in April, the VAT started to 1 tax cuts.
March non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.8 percent, down 0.5 percentage points. With a quarter of a running situation, the index is an average of 54.6% in the first quarter, higher than 0.9 percentage points in the fourth quarter of last year, non-manufacturing sector, as a rule, stable and rapid growth.
Liu Yu Guosheng, chief analyst in fixed income securities, said the non-production data show that domestic demand may be stabilizing. March construction PMI was 61.7%, the high-blooming field, the amount of debt issued in advance and a special rate Difangzhengfu expenses fund, may play a role in supporting domestic demand.
industrial bankChief economist Lu political commissar, said seasonal factors contribute to the improvement of the construction industry, to reduce heat out & # 39; I and rainy outside South & # 39; em, construction began or accelerated. In addition, the more important reason for the rise of the proactive fiscal policy and a construction boom accelerated. 2019 initiative will make fiscal policy effectiveness. Sustainable investment as one of the "six-established" investment in infrastructure or chops. March new construction orders rebounded from the previous month by 5.9 percentage points to 57.9%, with the approval of infrastructure projects and carpet funds, investment in infrastructure is expected to maintain steady growth trend.