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Perhaps the longest period of cyclical expansion since the 1740s


Dry bulk stocks have long floated in the wind after the weak market conditions have become even weaker as a result of the drought in Brazil in early February.

But suddenly the situation changed, and tariffs directly went ahead as the projectile.

Baltic Dry Index on Friday rose by 1.9 percent to 2117 points. This is an increase of almost 90 percent over the last month and about 71 percent since the New Year.

Baltic Dry Index was not higher than in 2013.

capitalism prices are now up about $ 32 200 per day, compared with an average of this year 11,800 dollars a day.

China will be a higher demand for iron ore, which increases the rates at this time. Court hired route between Brazil and China, which is the rate of use of the North falls off rapidly.

Since June, the share of the "Golden Ocean" has grown by almost 50 percent, and "stellar mass" also decreased by about 40 percent.

Nevertheless, in the space can still be a big upside down.

– It is one of the longest periods of cyclical expansion since the 1740s

Joaquim Gandidal, the company's head of analysis Cleaves Securities, is closely monitoring this sector, and it has none of the "Norwegian" shares as a favorite among the carriers, dry mound.

– What is your favorite company Genco Shipping, where up to 50% compared with the price of our purpose is 16 dollars, says an analyst about actions that are closing on Friday exchanged $ 10:41.

Genco Shipping – is based in New York, the dry bulk cargo from ISIN from the Marshall Islands. The company operates 58 vessels, of which 17 – Capesize, two Panamax, 20 Supramax, six and 13 Handysize Ultramax. The average age of the fleet is about 9.4 years, and the company is mainly exposed to the spot market.

From mid-June Genco share increased by more than 40 percent, but Gandidal still sees sur & # 39; significant growth in this business.

– The company is estimated at 32 percent dyskontse on equity (NAV) and EV / EBITDA of 4 times and 2 times in 2020 and 202, respectively. we believe that the increased shipping costs, says Gandidal in the future.

Analyst says Cleaves, that the weak market in the spring is associated with only temporary effects.

– Until now dry on the & # 39; the volume going through a very tough year, with a smaller increase in demand due, in particular, the collapse of a dam in Brazil and particularly strong cyclone in Australia. However, this is only a temporary effect, and not the system, both in cyclical bottoms.

Because when you look up and forward, Gandidal believes that the weak market in the spring will be the basis for a much better market in the future.

– The positive impact of weak market lies in the fact that the contract with the new buildings is at a very low level, and the order book is close to historic low levels. So I think he is one of the longest periods of cyclical expansion since the 1740s, Concluded the head with analysis.

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