Singapore is heavily dependent on trade and traditionally with & # 39 is one of the first places in Asia that have suffered from shock during the global downturn – if the ripples spreading ripples across the region
Singapore: The fall of exports and the worst growth in a decade raised concerns about the outlook of Singapore's economy, while analysts say evidence suggests that Asia tends to go down when there is a tension between China and the United States.
While it may be one of the smallest countries in the world export center it is very sensitive to external shocks and has long been regarded as a barometer of global demand for goods and services.
The wealth of the city, the city is heavily dependent on trade and traditionally with & # 39 is one of the first places in Asia that have suffered strokes during global downturns – with rabiznastsyami tend to spread throughout the region.
Recent signs are not good. In June, exports fell by 17.3% compared with the previous year, the most rapid decline in six years, due to the fall in PC shipments & # 39; computer chips.
This comes from the GDP shock reduction compared with a quarter of 3.4% in the second quarter. Growth compared to the previous year was only 0.1% – the slowest pace since 2009 during the global financial crisis.
"Singapore – a canary in a coal mine" – said the AFP AFP, September Song Wun, a regional economist at CIMB Private Banking. "And he tells us that it is a cruel situation."
To warn of the dangers miners bring their underground canaries underground, because the birds will die in the presence of even a small amount of poisonous gas – ie the workers that they need to quickly get out.
Despite the fact that the constant weakening of growth in China to blame partly due to the slowdown in exports, analysts note that the trade war between the US and China, the two largest economies in the world, dramatically worsened the situation.
Beijing and Washington have hit each other's trade tariffs in excess of 360 billion dollars.
– "Winning is not a trade war" –
While Singapore – crossing point for goods going to the markets of the West and of these, as well as an Asian base for the producers of certain high-tech products – can show the greatest load, negative data emerged in the region.
Exports declined across Asia. In India in June fell by 9.7% in Indonesia – the largest economy in South-East Asia, in the same month, they decreased by 8.9%, and South Korea decreased by 10.7% in May.
The government reduced the growth forecasts, and indices in several countries, which measures activity in the manufacturing sector and services that create significant & # 39; a serious picture.
Central banks are trying to stimulate domestic consumption in Indonesia and South Korea cut interest rates on Thursday, the last in Asia – reduction in borrowing costs.
Singapore's central bank, presumably to facilitate monetary policy at the October meeting, and some economists predict that the country could fall into recession next year.
"The winners in this war there is no trade While the focus is on the trade conflict between China and the United States, damage to these two countries was not.", – he said in a commentary advice on IHS Markit business.
"Exports from key developing countries and developed Asian countries hit hits in the first half of 2019."
– Export to the ground –
US-China tensions intensified complex supply chain, which are the basis of the current global trading system.
They touched on Chinese demand for raw materials and other goods that are traditionally sent to the country, so that they are made into finished goods and shipped to other markets, including the United States.
In Asia, they Var & # 39; iruyutstsa of palm oil from Indonesia to Singapore semiconductors.
Chinese manufacturers have been forced to stop importing as well as their own exports to the US declined due to tariffs.
At a time when the demand for imports of raw materials in China is still slowing as the economy loses steam – in the second quarter, it increased by 6.2%, the weakest pace in three decades.
Despite the fact that Singapore is particularly vulnerable to the global economy, it is traditionally strongly rebounded. After contracting in 2009 during the global financial crisis, the city-state's economy grew by 14.5% in 2010.
But the near future may be stormy.
Japanese brokerage firm Nomura said that "Asian exports should remain heavy coming months."