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Crude Oil Monthly Forecast – April 2019


price of crude oil in the United States on the world market has seen steady upward price action this year. While there may have been related price range of action and small corrective rallies there and then, the general trend of prices for each month of this year was at the top. This is clearly evident when you look at the weekly chart, which shows the significant progress of action in crude oil prices in the global spot market. In addition, factors that have supported crude oil bull on their positive price rally this month were higher than in the last two months. However, oil prices continued to see the effect of disrupting the US weekly inventories data. US spot crude oil in March, the month saw an increase in the value of more than 7% when comparing the monthly open and closing prices.

The pair continued to scale new highs month after month as crude oil bulls seem to have found a reliable form of power from a fundamental point of view. Month did not begin on a positive note, supported by optimism surrounding trade negotiations and titles of Sino-U.S, who with the & # 39;. Appeared on the market, showing oil production and exports from Venezuela fell by 60% due to the influence of the US sanctions on the same. In addition, the news that OPEC plans to maintain its production and supply cut execution until June 2019, and Russia finally began to take measures to ensure that their output complies with the corresponding + OPEC summit agreed levels until the end of March has added support for positive bulls oil. However, increasing the weekly US crude stocks limited growth.

Supply disruptions from the Middle East reinforces the crude Bulls

Since the beginning of the year, to ensure compliance with OPEC to reduce production and supply agreement consistently helps to improve the provision of demand ratio on the world market, and it served as a long-term maintenance factor underlying crude oil bulls. The first half of March, also found support from reports which suggested that Syria plans to reduce its release in April less than 7 million barrels per day, while maintaining output significantly below the target of 10 million barrels a day, and that the United States saw the script, which was zero import of crude oil from Venezuela for the first time in history. At the same time, due to a sudden power outage of Venezuelan crude oil production and supply activities came to an abrupt halt. Significantly altered the global demand and supply dynamics, which affects the new wave of sharp upward price action.

The second half of the month saw the crude oil bulls trade range bound near month highs, supported by OPEC supply cuts authorities. But the price will soon hit new highs in 2019 and scalable $ 60 pens in the spot and Q & # 39; yuchersnym market as supply disruptions in Venezuela through a sudden blackout lasted longer than usual. While booking operations profit as a result of lower prices from 2019 highs within a short time, a shift in the dynamics of the proposals under the influence of the US sanctions against Iran & Venezuela's crude oil exports and the implementation of the reduction in OPEC supply helped prices recover above $ 60 in the handles soon. Sudden and is expected to bring in US weekly data on oil reserves in both API and EIA inventories also added support for oil bulls. But the decline in bond yields in the global market, which has led to an increase in the obverse of the trade risk and recession fears have influenced the action in crude oil prices.

Fundamental support is tilted to the Bulls But Gain,, it will probably Limited

Slowdown in world economic activity will mean a decrease in demand for crude oil, which would once again change the supply to demand ratio. But this time change will help crude oil bear. And US oil inventories rose again in the last week of March, as the weekly inventory data. As a result, crude oil prices which moves back to the $ 58 handle. But the rebound in the global bond markets led investors fear the global economic downturn and the risks obverse weakening sentiment away. This has helped the price of crude oil to return $ 60 handle and close during the month on a positive note. Moving forward, the price action is likely to remain positive in the global market, but the benefits may be limited. As geopolitical issues remain unresolved to date and headlines showing signs that neither the Sino-US trade war nor Brexit somewhere nearby to see a positive result, a certain level of risk obverse sentiment and fears of economic recession will linger in the market of crude oil carries with it fundamental support. Even if the information that shows that Russia may have met in order to reduce OPEC supply Syria and lowers its recovery, it has long been anticipated by investors and is likely to have been taken into account in the current campaign. While the confirmation of these events would lead price of crude oil saw a sharp rise, bulls see strong resistance at $ 62 handle and the price action will remain in a narrow range with a positive shift in a month, unless there is an update that with & # 39; It is totally unexpected or the United States in a week crude oil reserves to see consistent updates with draws in inventories data.

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